Sixth carbon budget

1 Progress ?
2 Introduction
3 Recommendations
4 Comments
5 Delivery gap
6 Seveth carbon budget
7 Related articles on Designing Buildings
8 External references

[edit] Progress ?

Carbon budgets are set by Parliament on the advice of the Climate Change Committee which is independent from Government. The budgets are set 12 years ahead of time to provide sufficient long-term guidance to investors.

So far, six carbon budgets have been set in law, covering the period from 2008 to 2032. The first three budgets (for 2008-23) were set in 2008 and the fourth (for 2023-27) in 2011. The fifth carbon budget was set in 2016. It limited UK greenhouse gas emissions from all sources, excluding international aviation and shipping, to 1,725 MtCO2 between 2028 and 2032. This is equivalent to a 57 per cent reduction in annual UK emissions over this period on average, relative to 1990.

The sixth budget (2033–37) was published in 2020, the first carbon budget set in line with a net zero target and one including aviation and shipping. The Government's progress in reducing GHG emissions in line with these budgets are published yearly.

Key highlights of the yearly reports can be found in the article Climate Change Committee progress reports.

[edit] Introduction

The sixth carbon budget is a requirement under the Climate Change Act, it provides ministers with advice on the volume of greenhouse gases that the UK can emit during the period 2033-2037. It was published in December 2020, by the Climate Change Committee (CCC) and at the time was described as the “toughest yet” because it advised that the UK needs to deliver a 78% reduction by 2035 if it is to meet its long-term net-zero commitment. The target under the original Climate Change Act of 2008 was an 80% reduction by 2050, this brings almost the same reduction forward by 15 years.

At the time, to deliver this the CCC proposed a major investment programme across the country, largely by the private sector. Stating at the time that the investment would also be the key to the UK’s economic recovery over the following decade, in many areas, giving real savings, as the nation uses fewer resources and adopts cleaner, more-efficient technologies, like electric cars, to replace their fossil-fuelled predecessors. The CCC found that these savings substantially reduced the cost of net zero, compared with previous assessments: down to less than 1% of GDP throughout the next 30 years, thanks, not only to the falling cost of offshore wind but also a range of new low cost, low-carbon solutions in every sector.

A notable inclusion in the Sixth Carbon Budget was the UK’s share of international aviation and shipping emissions. Historically, the Government’s emissions reduction efforts only accounted for emissions on a “territorial” basis and therefore only included those within the UK’s borders, a decision that historically drew criticism from green groups.

The new target became enshrined in law at end of June 2021, with legislation introduced to Parliament.

[edit] Recommendations

The Sixth Carbon Budget included recommendations for how it could be met through four key steps:

[edit] Low-carbon solutions

People and businesses will choose to adopt low-carbon solutions, as high carbon options are progressively phased out. By the early 2030s all new cars and vans and all boiler replacements in homes and other buildings are low-carbon – largely electric. By 2040 all new trucks are low-carbon. UK industry shifts to using renewable electricity or hydrogen instead of fossil fuels, or captures its carbon emissions, storing them safely under the sea.

[edit] Low-carbon energy supplies

UK electricity production is zero carbon by 2035. Offshore wind becomes the backbone of the whole UK energy system, growing from the Prime Minister’s promised 40GW in 2030 to 100GW or more by 2050. New uses for this clean electricity are found in transport, heating and industry, pushing up electricity demand by a half over the next 15 years, and doubling or even trebling demand by 2050. Low-carbon hydrogen scales-up to be almost as large, in 2050, as electricity production is today. Hydrogen is used as a shipping and transport fuel and in industry, and potentially in some buildings, as a replacement for natural gas for heating.

[edit] Reducing demand

The UK wastes fewer resources and reduces its reliance on high-carbon goods. Buildings lose less energy through a national programme to improve insulation across the UK. Diets change, reducing our consumption of high-carbon meat and dairy products by 20% by 2030, with further reductions in later years. There are fewer car miles travelled and demand for flights grows more slowly. These changes bring striking positive benefits for health and well-being.

[edit] Land and greenhouse gas removal

There is a transformation in agriculture and the use of farmland while maintaining the same levels of food per head produced in 2020. By 2035, 460,000 hectares of new mixed woodland are planted to remove CO2 and deliver wider environmental benefits. 260,000 hectares of farmland shifts to producing energy crops. Woodland rises from 13% of UK land in 2020 to 15% by 2035 and 18% by 2050. Peatlands are widely restored and managed sustainably.

[edit] Comments

Prime Minister Boris Johnsonat the time said: “We want to continue to raise the bar on tackling climate change, and that’s why we’re setting the most ambitious target to cut emissions in the world. The UK will be home to pioneering businesses, new technologies and green innovation as we make progress to net-zero emissions, laying the foundations for decades of economic growth in a way that creates thousands of jobs. We want to see world leaders follow our lead and match our ambition in the run-up to the crucial climate summit COP26, as we will only build back greener and protect our planet if we come together to take action.”

COP26 President-Designate Alok Sharma, said at the time: “This hugely positive step forward for the UK sets a gold standard for ambitious Paris-aligned action that I urge others to keep pace with ahead of COP26 in Glasgow later this year. We must collectively keep 1.5 degrees of warming in reach and the next decade is the most critical period for us to change the perilous course we are currently on. Long term targets must be backed up with credible delivery plans and setting this net-zero focused Sixth Carbon Budget builds on the world leading legal framework in our Climate Change Act. If we are to tackle the climate crisis and safeguard lives, livelihoods and nature for future generations, others must follow the UK’s example.”

[edit] Delivery gap

The impacts of the coronavirus pandemic delivered an estimated 10.7% reduction in carbon emissions in 2020, with total greenhouse gas emissions almost 50% lower than they were in 1990, the baseline year for the UK’s net-zero target.

Meeting the Budget’s requirements will require all new cars, vans and replacement boilers to be zero-carbon in operation by the early 2030s. UK electricity production must then reach net-zero by 2035, in line with the National Grid ESO’s vision, and the majority of existing UK homes will need to be retrofitted.

The CCC based its calculations on a scenario in which 40% of the emissions reductions needed will be delivered using technology solutions. Delivering the remainder of the progress will require behaviour change including electric vehicle adoption and reducing demand for flights and red meat.

It was estimated that delivering the UK’s 2050 net-zero target will cost between 0.5% and 1% of GDP. The CCC had previously forecast costs of between 1% and 2% of GDP but has adjusted calculations in light of cost reductions in sectors like offshore wind. Annually, the Government needs to allocate £50bn more to decarbonisation each year by 2030 than it did in 2019. But, by 2040, savings from fossil fuel allocations will overtake low-carbon costs.

[edit] Seveth carbon budget

The Sixth Carbon Budget Advice and the Third Climate Change Risk Assessment were the last major outputs of the CCC, published in 2021. 2023 is the midpoint of the cycle, where the CCC will define what is hoped to be achieved, building a programme of research, engagement and analysis, towards the Seventh Carbon Budget (CB7) and the Fourth Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA4). The Seventh Carbon Budget takes the UK into the early 2040s, a period when it should have fully decarbonised some key UK sectors.